Rafael Jodar’s rise: The stats behind the rocket ship | ATP Tour

Beyond The Numbers

Rafael Jodar’s rise: The stats behind the rocket ship

Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers examines how Jodar has turned into one of the biggest stars on the ATP Tour

April 27, 2026

In the first round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, Alejandro Tabilo defeated Rafael Jodar 6-1, 6-2 in just 59 minutes. Since then, nothing has been the same for the 19-year-old.

Jodar has quickly become one of the biggest stars of the ATP Tour, and there are clear reasons behind his success. According to an Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers analysis, the Spaniard has improved from sub-par serving to solid serving, particularly behind his first serve. And more impressively, the teen has turned into one of the best returners in the sport.

Jodar’s 2026 Serving: Pre Miami vs. Since

^{*Through R3 in Madrid}

In his first eight tour-level matches of the season — through his Indian Wells defeat to Tabilo — Jodar struggled on serve. The former University of Virginia standout won just 71.3 per cent of his service games and 64 per cent of his first-serve points. Comparing to the ATP Tour leaderboard entering Madrid, only four of 74 qualifying players have won less than 71.3 per cent of their service games.

But the crux of the Spaniard’s issue was finding a way to take advantage of his first serve. Ahead of Madrid, only Damir Dzumhur’s 62.5 win rate behind his first delivery was lower than Jodar’s 64 per cent through his first eight matches of the season. To put it into context, Ben Shelton has won 59.9 per cent of his second-serve points this season through Madrid.

The PIF ATP Next Gen Accelerator qualifier Jodar has made a massive improvement in that area, winning 74.5 per cent of his first-serve points in 15 matches since Indian Wells. That would make him 27th of 74 qualifying players. It is not that Jodar has suddenly begun taking much more risk on his first serve, either. Before Miami, the Spaniard made 63.6 per cent of his first serves. Since then, he has landed 61.9 per cent of them.

In large part thanks to that success, Jodar has won 85.9 per cent of his service games since falling to Tabilo in California, a 20.5 per cent improvement compared to his first eight tour-level matches of the season. In six of his past 15 matches, the 19-year-old has not lost serve once.

Jodar’s 2026 Returning: Pre Miami vs. Since

^{*Through R3 in Madrid}

But most notable has been his success on return. Winning 20 per cent of his return games before Miami was nothing to sneeze at. Joao Fonseca, Flavio Cobolli and Learner Tien have all won around that rate of return games this season.

Since the start of Miami, however, Jodar has found a different level. In his 15 matches across Miami, Marrakech, Barcelona and Madrid, the teen has won an astounding 35.6 per cent of his return games, a 78 per cent improvement.

Entering Madrid, only five players had won more than 30 per cent of their return games this season: Francisco Cerundolo (33.2%), Daniil Medvedev (32.5%), Carlos Alcaraz (31.1%), Mariano Navone (30.2%) and Jannik Sinner (30.2%). Through his first three matches in Madrid, Jodar has won 29.5 per cent of his return games for the whole season. So if he continues his recent pace, the breakthrough star will shortly be challenging for the very top of the return games won leaderboard.

Jodar will hope that also proves critical to a deep run in Madrid, where he will play Vit Kopriva Tuesday for a place in the quarter-finals.

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Did You Know?
Making a quick start has been critical for Jodar this season. The Madrid native has won 28 of his 29 matches at all levels this season in which he has won the first set, while the teen has lost six of the seven matches in which he has dropped the opening set.