Rory McIlroy captured his second consecutive green jacket last Sunday, earning his sixth major championship.
The victory means a great deal for his legacy.
I believe that McIlroy now is the best European golfer ever, surpassing Seve Ballesteros and Nick Faldo. I also think this win pushes him to No. 10 on the list of the best male golfers in history, sneaking past Phil Mickelson.
By the end of his career, there will likely be no debate to be had. McIlroy, who is about to turn 37, seems destined to be on the level of a Tom Watson or Arnold Palmer.
This brings up the question of how many majors McIlroy will win in his career.
I’m drawing the over/under line at 7.5 majors
If you had to bet on whether McIlroy will be above or below this line of 7.5 majors, which side would you choose?
Let’s start with the case for why McIlroy will win at least two more majors.
If he gets to eight majors, that would surpass Palmer and tie him with Watson. Only five golfers in history have more than eight majors: Jack Nicklaus (18), Tiger Woods (15), Walter Hagen (11), Ben Hogan (9) and Gary Player (9).
This would be put him in a certain echelon of the game that is reserved for legendary figures so there should be plenty of hunger to reach that level.
McIlroy has two wins in the last five majors played. He has been playing consistently outstanding golf over the past few years, particularly at the majors where he is usually in contention.
Since 2022, Rory has 11 top-10 major finishes. Look at his results in the last seven U.S. Opens (T9-T8-T7-T5-2-2-T19). He’s been in the mix almost every year and hasn’t won any of them.
It feels like he has nothing to lose at this point which could be very freeing in future majors.
If McIlroy retired tomorrow, he would still be the greatest European golfer to ever play the game. Yes, there is opportunity to enhance his legacy to a different level. But there is also no need to have so much tension in his game—the same tension that contributed to an 11-year major drought.
McIlroy has a 10.8-percent win rate throughout his career, although that drops to 8.8 percent in the majors.
I am going to predict that McIlroy has at least five seasons of golf left where he is still at the highest levels of his ability and the desire to compete doesn’t wane. Let’s say he has roughly 20 major championship appearances left at this level of golf.
If you’re going off his career win rate, that would be around two majors. If you’re going off his major win rate, it’s about 1.8 major wins expected in that time frame.
I think his established comfort level with Augusta and aforementioned success in U.S. Opens is enough to make a fair case that he will get at least two more majors total for his career. You could also look at his competition and say that only Scottie Scheffler is a threat to win majors by the handful at this point. Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau and others should remain factors but it doesn’t feel like any of them have the capacity to be at the McIlroy/Scheffler standard.
The main wildcards are desire and possibility for injury (which McIlroy has only endured for brief periods in his career).
If he stays relatively healthy, I think the over 7.5 majors is a great bet.
The case for the under? As mentioned, McIlroy went almost 11 years without winning one of these. They are very difficult to win.
And in the modern game, it seems like players beyond the age of 40 start to decline rapidly. We’re not in 2004 anymore. There are examples of world-class players like Justin Rose, 45, who are still relevant in majors—but the list of guys who have recently fallen off sharply in their 40s is much longer.
McIlroy does take excellent care of his body and has such a fluid swing that I feel like he could manage to remain at the top of his game for longer than others—but Father Time comes for us all.
What do you think of that 7.5 line? Will he win two more majors?
