PIF ATP Live Rankings Projection
How Sinner can become World No. 1 in Monte-Carlo
Alcaraz holds a 1,190-point advantage against Sinner heading into the European clay swing
April 04, 2026
ATP Tour
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will continue the battle for World No. 1 in Monte-Carlo.
By Sam Jacot
Jannik Sinner arrives at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters firmly on Carlos Alcaraz’s heels in the battle for World No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings after completing the ‘Sunshine Double’.
Fresh off title runs in Indian Wells and Miami in March, Sinner has surged to within 190 points of the Spaniard in the PIF ATP Live Rankings. With no points to defend in Monte-Carlo after missing the event last year, the Italian has a clear opportunity to apply even more pressure at the season’s first clay-court ATP Masters 1000 event. Alcaraz is defending 1,000 points after his first title in the Principality 12 months ago.
If Sinner does not reach at least the semi-finals in Monte-Carlo, Alcaraz will remain World No. 1 on 13 April. But there are multiple scenarios in which the Italian can ascend to No. 1.
The simplest scenario is winning the title. If Sinner wins the Monte-Carlo title, he would be guaranteed to climb to No. 1 no matter what the 22-year-old Spaniard does in The Principality.
If Sinner reaches the semi-finals and Alcaraz exits before the quarter-finals, Sinner will return to No. 1. If Sinner reaches the final and Alcaraz does not, the Italian will move ahead. In any other scenario, Alcaraz will remain World No. 1 after the tournament.
Alcaraz/Sinner points round-by-round
| W/D | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | F | W | |
| Alcaraz | 12,590 | 12,600 | 12,690 | 12,790 | 12,990 | 13,240 | 13,590 |
| Sinner | 12,400 | 12,400 | 12,450 | 12,550 | 12,750 | 13,000 | 13,350 |
Sinner holds a 10–4 record in Monte-Carlo, according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index, with his best results being semi-final runs in 2023 and 2024. Alcaraz, meanwhile, had never won a match at the tournament prior to last year, but enjoyed a standout week in 2025 to claim the title.
Beyond Monte-Carlo, Alcaraz will have a demanding clay-court stretch with 3,300 points to defend because of his performance last year, when he lifted trophies at Roland Garros and Rome, and made the final in Barcelona. Sinner has 1,950 points on the line after finishing runner-up to Alcaraz at both Roland Garros and in Rome.
Alcaraz will begin his 66th week as World No. 1 on Monday, drawing level with Sinner’s total. But with the margins tightening and the clay season just beginning, Monte-Carlo could mark a pivotal turning point in the battle for top spot.
Should Alcaraz and Sinner meet in the final, which would mark their first clash since the Nitto ATP Finals championship match in November, the winner will clinch the crown and the No. 1 spot in the PIF ATP Rankings.
