At the half-way point of the 2026 Masters, it is the 2025 champion, Rory McIlroy, on top of the leaderboard once again. McIlroy won his first green jacket and completed the career Grand Slam with a winning score of 11 under last April. In his title defense, McIlroy has already eclipsed that number and leads by six shots at 12 under through two rounds at Augusta National Golf Club.
After firing a 67 on Day 1, the five-time major champion closed Day 2 with four straight birdies and a seven-under 65. Sam Burns shared the lead with McIlroy coming into Friday but now trails by six. Patrick Reed, the 2018 champion, is also six under.
With 36 holes still left to decide the 90th Masters, McIlroy is out to a whopping -280 favorite to be the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002 and only the fourth-ever repeat champion in the history of the tournament. His six-shot lead is the largest 36-hole lead at the Masters.
Fleetwood and Reed are the second choices on the oddsboard and are currently at 18-1. The gap between the favorite and the rest of the pack is cavernous. Rose is at 20-1 and Burns 22-1 to win.
Most sportsbooks would love to see McIlroy in Butler Cabin on Sunday evening, as the defending champion was not heavily backed by bettors coming into the event. The biggest liability, pre-tournament, at BetMGM, was Bryson DeChambeau, who missed the cut after a triple-bogey 7 on the 18th hole Friday.
So, what do we do now heading into the weekend? No, I’m not betting on McIlroy at -280 with this much golf left and on a course that is likely only going to get firmer, faster and more difficult. Here’s what I’m thinking with 36 to play.
Justin Rose (20-1)
How about taking a shot with last year’s runner-up? Rose was being offered anywhere from 30-1 to 35-1 pre-tournament. He’s now in a tie for fourth and we’re still getting 20-1 — I don’t mind that. Rose ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and SG: Approach, although he’s been a little off with his putter. In his career, Rose has been one of the best putters of anyone on these greens at Augusta National. If he continues to play the way he’s been going and the putter starts to heat up, he could be right there with Rory at the end once again.
Cameron Young (27-1)
Young played alongside McIlroy for the first two rounds of the tournament. He played his first nine on Thursday in 40 and his next 27 in eight under. He came inches away from making five straight birdies on the second nine on Friday. He’s gaining nearly two shots on the field off the tee, ranks seventh in this field for SG: Tee to Green but, like Rose, Young’s putter hasn’t quite found the sweet spot yet. (Young was one of our original pre-tournament selections at 28-1. Let’s see if he can make it three straight Players champions that have also gone on to win the green jacket in the same season.)
Shane Lowry (33-1)
Wouldn’t it be something to see Rory and Lowry, two close pals, battling one another down the stretch? Similar to the Rose and Young profiles, Lowry ranks sixth in SG: Tee to Green and is second on approach, but the putter is yet to fire as he is gaining just slightly better than half a stroke on the field. If he can find it, he too poses a real threat to McIlroy over the weekend.
It’s also worth considering a top-five finish play on each of these chasers. To finish top five, Rose is +170, Young is +200, and Lowry is +250. And considering each of these three players rank 60th or better on Tour in SG: Putting in 2026, things should turn for the better for each of them over the weekend with the flatstick.
Brady Kannon is a seasoned golf bettor and commentator. He is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer.
